Ruushka ayaa muddo dheer ahaa dalka hubka ugu badan u dhoofiya dalalka Saxaraha ka hooseeya, balse cilmi-baadhis cusub ayaa muujinaysa cunaqabataynta reer galbeedka ay ku adkaysay xukuumadda Moscow inay hub badan geyso dalalkaas, taasina waxay albaabka u furaysa fursad Shiinuhu hub badan ku geeyo.
Xitaa ka hor dagaalkii Ukraine, Shiinaha ayaa kordhiyey hubka ay u iibgeeyaan dalalka Saxaraha ka hooseeya, isaga oo u dhoofin jiray ku dhawaad saddex laab in ka badan hubka gobolka intii u dhaxaysay 2017 iyo 2020 marka loo eego Maraykanka, sida lagu sheegay warbixin uu bishan soo saaray golaha Atlantic Council . Qaybta libaaxa waxa gaadhay shan waddan oo Afrikaan ah oo Shiinuhu si weyn ugu maalgaliyey barnaamijkiisa kaabayaasha muhiimka ah ee loo yaqaan Hindisaha Belt and Road Initiative.
Tusaale ahaan, 2021, Nigeria – oo la dagaalantay fallaago Islaami ah waxayna ku bixisay $ 4.5 bilyan ciidankeeda sanadkaas – waxay hubkeeda boqolkiiba 34.4% ka soo iibsatay Shiinaha, iyada oo Ruushka uu ka yahay in ka badan 6%, halka Maraykanka – oo weli ka mid ah dalalka hubka ugu weyn caalamka u dhoofiya ilaa boqolkiiba 2% ayaa laga soo qaatay.
Cilmi-baadhayaasha Golaha Atlantic ayaa sheegaya in isbeddelkani uu sii socon doono.
“Weerarkii Ruushka ee 2022 ee Ukraine waxa laga yaabaa inuu fursado dheeraad ah u furo xidhiidhka millatariga Shiinaha ee Nigeria. Cunaqabataynta caalamiga ah ee ka dhalatay duulaankaas ayaa laga yaabaa inay xaddido faa’iidooyinka heshiiskii Nigeria 2021 ee Moscow ee ku saabsanaa qalabka iyo tababarka – waxayna macnaheedu noqon kartaa hubka Nigeria ee laga keeno Shiinaha oo kordha,” ayaa lagu yidhi warbixinta.
Cunaqabataynta Maraykanka ee qandaraasleyaal badan oo Ruushka ah ayaa ku khasbaya Nigeria inay tixgeliso beddelaad kale: Shiinaha ayaa si cad oo ikhtiyaariyan ah u noqday kan ugu sarreeya ee hubka u dhoofiya Nigeria, isaga oo ka sarreeya Ruushka dhoofinta hubka. labadii sano ee isku xigta,” sida warbixintu heshay.
Golaha Atlantic ayaa ku qiyaasay in intii u dhaxaysay 2010 iyo 2021, Ruushku uu lahaa boqolkiiba 24% dhammaan hubka loo dhoofiyo Afrikada Saxaraha ka hooseeya, Shiinuhuna 22% iyo Maraykanka 5%. Dhoofinta Hubka ee Shiinaha waxay Afrika qabsatay 2013, sanadkaas oo Shiinuhu bilaabay Hindisaha la magac baxay Belt and Road Initiative oo uu wadooyin iyo kaabayaal u dhisayo Afrika.
Oluwole Ojewale, oo ah cilmi-baadhe reer Nigeria ah oo ka tirsan machadka daraasaadka amniga, ayaa VOA u sheegay inay jiraan laba sababood oo ka dambeeya Nigeria iyo dalalka kale ee Afrika inay u soo jeestaan Shiinaha si ay hub u helaan. Mid, ayuu yidhi, waa xaqiiqda ah in Shiinuhu yahay ganacsiga ugu weyn ee Afrika guud ahaan. Midda kale waa in iibinta hubka Shiinaha – si ka duwan dhoofinta hubka ee Maraykanka aanay la iman shuruudo, sida in hubkaasi u gudbo gacan kale ama lagu galo xadgudubyo.
“Waa la khafiifiyey dhanka Shiinaha iyo dhinaca Ruushkaba, marka la barbar dhigo Maraykanka,” ayuu yidhi Oluwole Ojewale.
Paul Nantulya, oo ah xidhiidhiye cilmi-baadhiseed oo ka tirsan Xarunta Afrika ee Istiraatijiyada Daraasaadka, ayaa sheegay in xogta Golaha Atlantic ay muujisay “sare u kac weyn” oo iibkii hubka Shiinaha marka loo eego xogtii hore.
“Waxaan aaminsanahay in cunaqabateynta lagu soo rogay Ruushka, waxay si cad faa’iido ugu tahay Shiinaha … Shiinuhu runtii wuxuu u taagan yahay inuu faa’iido helo” ayuu yidhi, isaga oo raaciyay “in Shiinaha iyo Ruushka dhab ahaantii ay yihiin tartamayaal marka ay timaado hubka qaaradda Afrika”.
“Sidoo kale wadamada Afrika waxay aad uga niyad jabeen wixii ay ku arkeen qalabkii Ruushka ee dagaalka Ukkraine, gaar ahaan taangiyada iyo hubka culus ay qabaan in ay ku dhaceen Ukraine,” ayuu tidhi Nantulya.
Marka la eego dhabta ah dalalka Afrikaanka ah ayaa ku xidhan oo iibsanaya hubka Shiinaha, sida ay sheegtay Nantulya. Ugu horrayntii, Rwanda ayaa soo iibsatay nidaamka gantaalaha Shiinaha ee “Arrow Cas”, Namibia-na waxa ay soo iibsatay maraakiibta ilaalada iyo weerrarada ee Shiinaha, si la mid ah Algeria ayaa iibsatay. Shiinuhu waxa uu mar walba kali ku haystaa hubka iyo tababarada Tansaaniya, sidoo kale Cameroon, ciidanka badda ee dalkaas ayaa lagu qalabeeyey qoryo China ah oo heersare ah.
Golaha Atlantic ayaa sheegay in Shiinuhu uu sidoo kale uu ka qalin jabiyay iibinta hubka fudud oo uu uga iibiyo Afrika si weyn. Nantulya waxaykale oo xustay in “gaadiidka aan duuliyaha lahayn ay noqdeen muuqaal difaac oo caan ka ah militariga Afrika.”