Xiisaddii dagaal ee India iyo Pakistan, uma muuqato in ay taagan tahay xaalad Badhanka ama Button-ka cas ee Nukliyeerka la taabto, laakiin waxa laga baqayaa in xaaladu halkaas gaadho, waxa jira calaamado qarsoon iyo dhexdhexaadin si aamusan u socota. Labadan wadan ee ku hubaysan Nukliyeerka ayaa si deg-deg ah u bilaabantay, haatana waxa taagan eedayn iyo hanjabaado laysu dirayo.
Daraasad sanadkii 2019 ah oo ay sameeyeen koox saynisyahano ah oo caalami ah ayaa muujisay dhacdo riyo ah taas muujinaysa weerar argagixisanimo oo lagu qaadayo baarlamaanka Hindiya sanadka 2025 waxaana weerarkaasi uu kiciyay isweydaarsiga nukliyeerka ee Hindiya iyo Pakistan.
Lix sano ka dib, hadda waxa taagan iska horimaad – in kasta oo ay jirto xabbad joojin uu Maraykanku gadhwadeen ka ahaa Sabtidii – weli waxa jirta cabsida laga qabo isku dhac buuxa. Waxa kale oo la saadaalinyaa sida xasilloonida gobolku u noqon karto mid jilicsan.
Madaxweyne Trump ayaa sheegay in Maraykanku aanu kaliya samayn dhexdhexaadin xabbad-joojin – laakiin waxa uu baajiyay “isku dhac nukliyeer ah” . sidaa waxa uu sheegay Isniintii tobaadkii hore, isaga oo khudbad u jeedinaya qaranka, Ra’iisul Wasaaraha Hindiya Narendra Modi wuxuu yidhi: “Ma loo dulqaadan karo mad-madowga nukliyeerka ; Hindiya kama baqi doonto hanjabaadaha nukliyeerka.
Hindiya iyo Pakistan mid kastaa wuxuu haystaa ilaa 170 hub nukliyeer ah , sida laga soo xigtay machadka cilmi-baadhista nabadda ee Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). Laga bilaabo Janaayo 2024, Sipri waxay ku qiyaastay inay jiraan 12,121 madaxyo nukliyeer ah oo adduunka oo dhan ah. Kuwaas, ilaa 9,585 ka mid ah waxaa lagu hayaa kayd ciidan, iyada oo 3,904 si firfircoon ayey u diyaarsan yihiin. Maraykanka iyo Ruushka ayaa wada haysta in ka badan 8,000 oo hubka Nukliyeerka ah.
Inta badan hubka Nukliyeerka ee India iyo Pakistan waxa loo isticmaali karaa gantaalaha dhulka, in kasta oo labadooduba ay horumariyaan saddex-geesood nukliyeer ah oo awood u leh inay madaxyada laga rido karo dhulka, cirka iyo badda, sida uu sheegay Christopher Clary, oo ah khabiir dhinaca ammaanka ah oo ka tirsan jaamacadda Albany ee dalka Maraykanka.
Tan iyo markii ay tijaabisay hubka nukliyeerka ee 1998, Pakistan waligeed si rasmi ah uma shaacin caqiidada nukliyeerka ee rasmiga ah.
Laakiin Hindiya waxay qaadatay siyaasad ah in isticmaalka Nukliyeerku uu yahay siyaasada ugu danbaysa, ka dib markii ay shaacisay in ay yeelatay 1998. Laakiin mawqifkaasi waxa uu muujiyay calaamado jilicsanaan ah, sidaa awgeed sannadkii 2003, waxay sheegtay in Hindiya ay xaq u leedahay in ay isticmaasho haday khatar aragto.
Sannadkii 2002-dii, madaxweynihii xilligaas ee Pakistan Pervez Musharaf wuxuu caddeeyay in “hubka nukliyeerka uu ku wajahan yahay Hindiya oo keliya”, waxaana la isticmaali doonaa oo keliya haddii “jiritaanka Pakistan dawlad ahaan” uu khatar ku jiro.
Xusuus-qorkiisa, xoghayihii hore ee arrimaha dibadda ee Maraykanka Mike Pompeo wuxuu ku qoray in uu habeenkii soo jeedo si uu ula hadlo “ dhigiisa Hindiya” oo aan la magacaabin, kaas oo ka cabsi qabay in Pakistan ay isku diyaarineyso inay adeegsato hubka nukliyeerka inta lagu guda jiro 2019 iska horimaadka kala dhexeeya Hindiya.
Isla waqtigaas, warbaahinta Pakistan ayaa soo xigatay sarkaal sare oo digniin culus u diray Hindiya: “Waxaan rajeynayaa inaad ogtahay macnaha [Maamulka Qaranka] iyo waxa ay ka kooban tahay. Waxaan idhi waanu idinla yaabi doonnaa. Sug yaabkaas… waxaad dooratay waddo dagaal adigoon ogeyn cawaaqibka ka dhalan kara nabadda iyo amniga gobolka.”
Intii lagu jiray dagaalkii Kargil ee 1999-kii, xoghayihii arrimaha dibadda ee Pakistan Shamshad Axmed ayaa ka digay in waddanku “aanay ka labalabayn doonin in uu isticmaalo hub kasta” si uu u difaaco dhulkiisa. Sannado ka dib, sarkaal Maraykan ah oo lagu magacaabo Bruce Riedel ayaa shaaca ka qaaday in sirdoonku tilmaamay in Pakistan ay diyaarinayso hubkeeda nukliyeerka si ay suurtogal u noqoto in la geeyo .
Laakiin waxaa jira shaki labada dhinac ah oo ku saabsan sheegashada noocaas ah.
U qaybsamihii hore ee Hindiya u qaabilsanaa Pakistan Ajay Bisaria ayaa ku qoray xusuustiisa in Pompeo uu ka badbadiyay khatarta sii kordheysa ee nukliyeerka iyo doorka Maraykanka ee dejinta colaadda 2019. Iyo intii lagu jiray Kargil, Pakistan “waxay ogaatay in Ciidanka Cirka Hindiya aanay u gudbi doonin dhulkeeda” – sidaas darteed ma jirin wax kicinaya khatar nukliyeer ah.
“Calaamadaha istiraatijiyadeed waxay xasuusinayaan aduunka in khilaaf kastaa uu soo wareegi karo, Hindiya iyo Pakistan-na waxa arrimohooda khatar ka sii dhigaya Nukliyeerka oo is dulsaaran iyo saamiyada oo aad u sareeya.
Laakiin korodhka nukliyeerka wuxuu sidoo kale keenaa karaa shil. “Tani waxay ku dhici kartaa khaladka bini’aadamka, jabsadayaasha, argagixisada, kombuyuutarrada oo xumaada, xogta xun ee dayax gacmeedyada iyo hoggaamiyeyaasha aan xasilloonayn,” Prof Alan Robock oo ka tirsan Jaamacadda Rutgers, ayaa u sheegay BBC.
Bishii Maarso 2022, Hindiya ayaa si lama filaan ah u ridday gantaal xambaari kara Nukliyeerka kaas oo ku safray 124km (77 mayl) dhulka Pakistan ka hor inta aanu shil ku dhicin, kaas oo la sheegay in uu waxyeelo u geystay hanti rayid ah. Pakistan waxa ay sheegtay in India ay ku guul darreysatay in ay isticmaasho khadka milatariga ama ay soo saarto bayaan dadweyne muddo laba maalmood ah. dhacdadu waxay isu rogi kartaa iskahorimaad halis ah, ayay khubaradu sheegeen. (Bilo ka dib, dowladda India ayaa shaqada ka ceyrisay saddex sarkaal oo ka tirsan ciidamada cirka, sababo la xiriira “gantaalka shilka ah oo ay rideen”.)
In kasta oo ay jiraan dhibaatooyin soo noqnoqday iyo wicitaanno dhow, labada dhinacba waxay ilaa hadda ku guuleysteen in ay ka fogaadaan masiibo xun oo ku dhacda iskahorimaadka nukliyeerka. ” Cabsigu wali waa uu jiraa
Hase yeeshee, joogitaanka hubka nukliyeerka wuxuu diraa khatar joogto ah – mid aan waligiis gebi ahaanba meesha laga saari karin, iyada oo aan loo eegin sida khibradda hoggaamineed ama sida loo xakameeyo ujeedooyinka.